20 Crooked Creek Way · Porterdale, GA 30016

$290,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 1.11 ac lot $128/sqft · 18% below area Est $352k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Paint and New LVP Floors in Spacious 4BR/3BA split-level home on 1.11 acres on cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood with No HOA! Finished lower level includes bedroom, full bath, laundry, and additional living space-ideal for office, guest suite, or second living room. Upper level features eat-in Kitchen, Living Room with fireplace and Formal Dining with New LVP floors. Primary bedroom and 2 secondary bedrooms complete this level. All have LVP flooring as well. Major Updates include Newer Roof, HVAC, and Water Heater. Features New Deck, Newer brick front steps and porch, and Fenced yard with plenty of room for play, pets and gardening. Septic Tank pumped and clear Termite inspection. Great home with many updates, generous living space, and acreage-without HOA restrictions-in a serene neighborhood. Come make this your home today!

Key facts

• New lvp floors
• Fenced yard
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORS
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• NEW DECK
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer (septic tank); 110-volt electrical service; Cable and phone available
• Home design: Two levels; Resale property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick, stone and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with energy-efficient doors and windows
• Exterior features: Balcony; Private yard; Deck; Back yard chain-link fencing; Asphalt road frontage on a city street; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom (in-law floorplan); Three upper-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One main-level full bathroom; Two upper-level full bathrooms; Master bath with double vanity and soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings (9 ft on lower, main and upper levels); Double vanity in baths; Factory-built fireplace; Double-pane, insulated windows; No common walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Additional laundry/utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#447 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 648 students, 85% FRL); Veterans Memorial Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 637 students, 85% FRL); Alcovy High School (math 3% / reading 12%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 1,991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 59% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $290k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,262 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,299
• List price: $290,500
• Delta: -17.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
455 Bethany Rd	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,610 (+15%)	2mo	$420,000	$161	36
120 Oaklake Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,004 (-12%)	16mo	$265,000	$132	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,757
• Equity at exit: $43,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-68,965
• Equity at exit: $25,117

Cash invested: $81,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30016

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,523
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,388/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,333

Max offer price $270,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-29	+0% $-111	+5% $-193	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-198	+0% $-111	+5% $-25	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-37	base $-111	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,625
• Closing costs: $8,715
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 Richards Chapel Rd Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1964	$1,641	$0.84	26d	1	1.14mi
30 Berkshire Dr Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,100	$1.13	0d	1	1.41mi
45 Alexander Ct Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	2393	$2,000	$0.84	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $290,500 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (843 chars)

   New Paint and New LVP Floors in Spacious 4BR/3BA split-level home on 1.11 acres on cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood with No HOA! Finished lower level includes bedroom, full bath, laundry, and additional living space-ideal for office, guest suite, or second living room. Upper level features eat-in Kitchen, Living Room with fireplace and Formal Dining with New LVP floors. Primary bedroom and 2 secondary bedrooms complete this level. All have LVP flooring as well. Major Updates include Newer Roof, HVAC, and Water Heater. Features New Deck, Newer brick front steps and porch, and Fenced yard with plenty of room for play, pets and gardening. Septic Tank pumped and clear Termite inspection. Great home with many updates, generous living space, and acreage-without HOA restrictions-in a serene neighborhood. Come make this your home today!

3. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $289,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (843 chars)

   New Paint and New LVP Floors in Spacious 4BR/3BA split-level home on 1.11 acres on cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood with No HOA! Finished lower level includes bedroom, full bath, laundry, and additional living space-ideal for office, guest suite, or second living room. Upper level features eat-in Kitchen, Living Room with fireplace and Formal Dining with New LVP floors. Primary bedroom and 2 secondary bedrooms complete this level. All have LVP flooring as well. Major Updates include Newer Roof, HVAC, and Water Heater. Features New Deck, Newer brick front steps and porch, and Fenced yard with plenty of room for play, pets and gardening. Septic Tank pumped and clear Termite inspection. Great home with many updates, generous living space, and acreage-without HOA restrictions-in a serene neighborhood. Come make this your home today!

4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 138 DOM

   Show marketing remark (843 chars)

   New Paint and New LVP Floors in Spacious 4BR/3BA split-level home on 1.11 acres on cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood with No HOA! Finished lower level includes bedroom, full bath, laundry, and additional living space-ideal for office, guest suite, or second living room. Upper level features eat-in Kitchen, Living Room with fireplace and Formal Dining with New LVP floors. Primary bedroom and 2 secondary bedrooms complete this level. All have LVP flooring as well. Major Updates include Newer Roof, HVAC, and Water Heater. Features New Deck, Newer brick front steps and porch, and Fenced yard with plenty of room for play, pets and gardening. Septic Tank pumped and clear Termite inspection. Great home with many updates, generous living space, and acreage-without HOA restrictions-in a serene neighborhood. Come make this your home today!

5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   status $289,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $289,000 Pending 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    status Active 781-char remark
18. 2026-03-25
    status Back On Market 708-char remark
19. 2026-03-04
    status Under Contract 708-char remark
20. 2026-03-04
    status Pending 781-char remark
21. 2026-02-01
    price $289,000 781-char remark
22. 2026-02-01
    price $289,000 708-char remark
23. 2026-01-06
    listed $299,000 Active 781-char remark
24. 2026-01-06
    listed $299,000 New 708-char remark
25. 2025-12-26
    historical $299,000 708-char remark
26. 2025-12-24
    historical $299,000 781-char remark
27. 2021-12-08
    historical
28. 2021-12-05
    listed $280,000
29. 2002-04-10
    soldstatus $124,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,388 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,273
• − Property taxes: −$2,388
• − Insurance: −$1,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$8,451
• Taxable loss: −$6,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,551
• After-tax cash flow: $216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Porterdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #21362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 76
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 62,968
• Household income: $79,527
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1172.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.68%
• Current HPI: 317.5605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Price Changed $290,500 FMLS
• 2026-06-20 Price Changed $290,500 GAMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $289,000 GAMLS
• 2026-06-18 Listed $289,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-15 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-06-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-03-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $289,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-26 Coming Soon — GAMLS
• 2021-12-08 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-12-05 Listed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2002-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $124,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,388 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.