153 Campbell Cir

Hephzibah, GA 30815

$199,900C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,125 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,905/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,880/yr
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#418 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Burke County (town): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #148 of 174 in GA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blakeney Elementary (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 703 students, 100% FRL); Burke County Middle School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 882 students, 100% FRL); Burke County High School (math 4% / reading 17%, grade F, #348 of 424 statewide, top 83%, 1,170 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 371 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burke County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Hephzibah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.