153 Campbell Cir · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30815

$199,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1967 1.50 ac lot $178/sqft · 18% below area Est $243k · 18% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute 4BR Brick Ranch Home on over an Acre lot with storage building, carport, wood flooring and move-in ready!

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Over an acre lot
• Storage building

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• OVER AN ACRE LOT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CARPORT
• WOOD FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.5 acres; Zoning: R-1; Paved road access; Lot/frontage details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Attached 1-car garage; Total 1 parking space
• Utilities: Well water; Water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Patio; Outbuilding; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Built-in electric oven
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Burke County (town): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #148 of 174 in GA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blakeney Elementary (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 703 students, 100% FRL); Burke County Middle School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 882 students, 100% FRL); Burke County High School (math 4% / reading 17%, grade F, #348 of 424 statewide, top 83%, 1,170 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 359 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,471 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,292
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -17.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,475
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,653
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30815

• Home prices YoY: -24.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $380	+0% $323	+5% $267	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $248	+0% $323	+5% $399	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $424	-0.5pp $374	base $323	+0.5pp $272	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    historical
18. 2026-03-11
    price $199,900
19. 2025-06-23
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2025-06-23
    listed $199,900 Active 110-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,242/yr (+$103/mo · 207.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $590
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$142
• After-tax cash flow: $3,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County
• NCES district ID: 1300660
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,532
• Composite: 15.18/100
• National rank: #9343
• State rank: #148 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 44,109
• Household income: $70,202
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 867.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,186 people
• By 2030: 20,207 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 18,109 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 16,102 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 12,103 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 9,671 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.3) · D 45.1% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.6pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -9.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.3 2020: R+1.8 2016: D+2.6 2012: D+11.3 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.74%
• Current HPI: 162.4074
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.71%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $225,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.