856 Dahlia Ln

Vero Beach, FL 32963

$850,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1955 · Other · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$752
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,363
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-988/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-988/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $835k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $649k (23.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($799k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $649k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#116 in FL, #1,784 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beachland Elementary School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 523 students, 39% FRL); Gifford Middle School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 582 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.8% in Vero Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,490/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($150k/yr) (locally 119% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.