412 Orchard St

Horace, ND 58047

$370,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-346/mo
• Annual: $-4,156/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $370k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.