412 Orchard St · Horace, ND 58047

$370,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1992 0.71 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.71 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) with multiple levels; Main and lower living areas
• Construction: Concrete basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Partial fencing; Irregular lot; Cul-de-sac frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mix of upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (Hollywood bath noted)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $370k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $246,889 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-82,138
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-100,428
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58047

• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,428/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,907

Max offer price $308,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-137	-5% $-242	+0% $-346	+5% $-451	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-541	-5% $-444	+0% $-346	+5% $-249	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-252	base $-346	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $370,000
4. 2005-05-16
   soldstatus $189,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,626 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,198/yr (+$100/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$2,428
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,370
• − Management: −$2,370
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable loss: −$10,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,611
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Fargo 6
• NCES district ID: 3819410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,914
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4628
• State rank: #26 of 53 in ND

Livability — Horace

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horace, ND
• County: Cass County · 177,143 people
• City population: 5,636
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,636
• Household income: $142,361
• Rent vs Own: 4.7% rent · 95.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,771 people
• By 2030: 251,835 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 311,816 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 378,694 · +69.2%
• By 2075: 571,386 · +155.3%
• By 2100: 769,727 · +244.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scotch-Irish 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 44.9% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+2.7 2016: R+10.7 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.83%
• Current HPI: 178.7028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+94.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $370,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,428 · -24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.