140-15 Holly Ave Unit 2M

New York, NY 11355

$438,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,429/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax + insurance: −$796
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$720
• Net cashflow: $-385/mo
• Annual: $-4,614/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $122,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $438k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 24 Andrew Jackson (math 81% / reading 66%, grade A, #371 of 2,108 statewide, top 18%, 1,111 students, 74% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Francis Lewis High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 4,265 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,429/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6765% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?