140-15 Holly Ave Unit 2M · New York, NY 11355

$438,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Condo · 87 Days on market

Built 1989 ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Prime Location! Spacious 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths' Residence Situated In The Heart Of Flushing. Apt Is 1250 Sq Ft Interior Space. Conveniently Located Near Various Businesses, Supermarkets, Public Transportation Is Bus Stops Q27 & Q65. PS24.

Key facts

• Heart of flushing
• Near supermarkets
• Prime location

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• HEART OF FLUSHING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEAR VARIOUS BUSINESSES
• NEAR SUPERMARKETS
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $438k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $382k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 24 Andrew Jackson (math 81% / reading 66%, grade A, #371 of 2,108 statewide, top 18%, 1,111 students, 74% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Francis Lewis High School (math 97% / reading 92%, grade A+, #117 of 1,100 statewide, top 11%, 4,265 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,429/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 6765% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $342,894 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-11,060
• Equity at exit: $151,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $57,361
• Equity at exit: $202,983

Cash invested: $122,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11355

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,570/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$720
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,916

Max offer price $382,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-233	+0% $-385	+5% $-536	+10% $-687
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-520	+0% $-385	+5% $-249	+10% $-114
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-273	base $-385	+0.5pp $-498	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,500
• Closing costs: $13,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4255 Colden St Unit 16P Flushing, NY	2.0	1.5	1150	$3,500	$3.04	5d	1	0.36mi
142-23 Booth Memorial Ave Unit 1 Flushing, NY	3.0	1.0	1064	$3,200	$3.01	7d	1	0.40mi
136-19 Franklin Ave Unit 4A Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,300	$3.31	21d	1	0.50mi
150-32 Booth Memorial Ave Unit 1st FL Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1080	$3,350	$3.10	19d	1	0.53mi
4220 Kissena Blvd Unit D2 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.5	1800	$4,500	$2.50	6d	1	0.55mi
15022 58th Ave Flushing, NY	3.0	1.5	1224	$3,300	$2.70	17d	1	0.56mi
4140 Union St Unit 10P Flushing, NY	3.0	3.0	1220	$4,200	$3.44	26d	1	0.60mi
133-38 Avery Ave Unit 3F-B Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	26d	1	0.61mi
4156 149th St Flushing, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	26d	1	0.68mi
14731 Barclay Ave Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	26d	1	0.71mi
43-15 156th St Unit 2nd Fl Flushing, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,995	$1.87	16d	1	0.72mi
14803 61st Rd Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,600	$2.26	26d	1	0.74mi
43-12 157th St Unit 2 Flushing, NY	3.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	26d	1	0.74mi
13225 58th Ave Flushing, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$3,500	$2.69	6d	1	0.77mi
40-10 149th St Fl 3 Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,900	$2.82	14d	1	0.82mi
40-10 149th St Fl 1 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	0.82mi
13835 39th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1014	$4,350	$4.29	26d	2	0.84mi
13835 39th Ave Flushing, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$4,700	$4.70	3d	2	0.84mi
36-20 Parsons Blvd Unit 5D Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,600	$2.89	17d	1	0.92mi
3641 Union St Unit 2B Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	968	$3,100	$3.20	26d	1	0.93mi
4022 College Point Blvd Flushing, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$4,000	$4.07	26d	2	0.94mi
4028 College Point Blvd #912 Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1083	$4,200	$3.88	26d	1	0.95mi
13105 40th Rd Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$4,500	$5.90	5d	3	0.98mi
137-02 Northern Blvd Unit 6K Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,850	$3.17	13d	1	1.00mi
137-02 Northern Blvd Apt 5B Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,900	$3.22	0d	1	1.00mi
14809 Northern Blvd Flushing, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$4,000	$3.79	16d	2	1.01mi
13702 Northern Blvd Flushing, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$2,850	$3.35	9d	2	1.04mi
140-16 34th Ave Unit 1113 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	26d	1	1.13mi
14016 34th Ave Unit 1210 Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,000	$3.33	8d	1	1.14mi
140-16 34th Ave Apt 1003 Flushing, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,300	$3.00	26d	1	1.14mi
33-19 143rd St Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1224	$4,300	$3.51	26d	1	1.19mi
139-31 34th Ave Unit 3rd fl Flushing, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	26d	1	1.21mi
165-23 65th Ave Unit 2 Flushing, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$3,000	$2.50	24d	1	1.29mi
175-03 Peck Ave Unit 2 Floor Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	1824	$4,200	$2.30	8d	1	1.34mi
56-40 175th Pl Unit A Fresh Meadows, NY	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,600	$2.40	4d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-11-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-08
   listed $438,000 Active
3. 2025-04-01
   historical
4. 2024-08-08
   price $478,000
5. 2024-04-24
   listed $488,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,535
• − Property taxes: −$6,570
• − Insurance: −$2,988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,292
• − Management: −$3,292
• − Depreciation: −$12,742
• Taxable loss: −$12,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 80,801
• Household income: $55,326
• Rent vs Own: 66.6% rent · 33.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 6765.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 75% Hispanic / Latino 14% White 7% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 72% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Chinese 58% Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 253.1482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.93%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Listed $438,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $478,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-24 Listed $488,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid