3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
660 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,257/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$242
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$264
Net cashflow
$384/mo
Annual
$4,612/yr
Cap rate
15.03%
Cash-on-cash
31.20%
DSCR
2.39
1% rule
1.80%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 2.9% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KK4Z2Q6YBDZMJP
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29