3065 Buchanan Valley Rd

Arendtsville, PA 17353

$399,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,516 sqft · Built 1930 · Other · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,747/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$522
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-1,239/mo
• Annual: $-14,867/yr
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.28%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (54.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (56.3% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (56.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,088 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gettysburg Area SD (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #132 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $400k implies a 497% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.