9500 W Bay Harbor Dr Unit 2H

Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$399,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$955
• HOA: −$928
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
• Net cashflow: $-725/mo
• Annual: $-8,701/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (32.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $243k; list at $399k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,115/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.