9500 W Bay Harbor Dr Unit 2H · Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$399,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Condo public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1965 $928/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful apartment in the heart of Bay harbor Islands, nice floor, SS appliances, walk-in closets, open balcony, breathtaking sunsets. Quiet building walking distance to Bay Harbor Islands charming downtown.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Bay views
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• RENOVATED BOUTIQUE RESIDENCE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SOUND-PROOF IMPACT WINDOWS
• BAY VIEWS
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions or conditional approval
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $928; Association covers management, common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, pool(s), trash and water; Association amenities include clubhouse, barbecue, picnic area, pool, and elevators

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 covered space
• Security: Key card entry
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: 7-story building; Property is attached; Entry located on level 7; Resale unit
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Barbecue; Association pool; Bay front waterfront; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible elevator installed; Elevator; First floor entry; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (32.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,115/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $243k; list at $399k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,913 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
12. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
13. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
14. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
15. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $60,719
• Equity at exit: $253,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $193,972
• Equity at exit: $463,279

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,351/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$928
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$864
• Net cashflow: $-725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,033

Max offer price $270,913

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9703 Collins Ave Bal Harbour, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1401	$20,000	$14.28	24d	2	0.74mi
9703 Collins Ave #1006 Bal Harbour, FL	1.0	1.0	1261	$26,000	$20.62	22d	1	0.74mi
10295 Collins Ave #1613 Bal Harbour, FL	1.0	1.5	1147	$27,500	$23.98	24d	1	1.11mi
8701 Collins Ave #304 Surfside, FL	2.0	2.5	1457	$25,000	$17.16	24d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $928 · $11,136/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $399,000
15. 2026-05-07
    price $412,000
16. 2026-05-06
    price $413,500
17. 2026-04-23
    price $414,000
18. 2026-04-20
    price $415,000
19. 2026-03-23
    price $416,000
20. 2026-03-19
    price $418,000
21. 2026-03-03
    price $420,000
22. 2026-02-19
    status Active
23. 2026-02-05
    listed $425,000 Active
24. 2021-07-17
    soldstatus $243,000
25. 2021-07-05
    soldstatus $242,500 Closed 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Beautiful apartment in the heart of Bay harbor Islands, nice floor, SS appliances, walk-in closets, open balcony, breathtaking sunsets. Quiet building walking distance to Bay Harbor Islands charming downtown.

26. 2021-04-15
    historical Active Under Contract 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Beautiful apartment in the heart of Bay harbor Islands, nice floor, SS appliances, walk-in closets, open balcony, breathtaking sunsets. Quiet building walking distance to Bay Harbor Islands charming downtown.

27. 2020-11-12
    price $242,500 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Beautiful apartment in the heart of Bay harbor Islands, nice floor, SS appliances, walk-in closets, open balcony, breathtaking sunsets. Quiet building walking distance to Bay Harbor Islands charming downtown.

28. 2020-08-21
    listed $245,000 Active 208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (208 chars)

    Beautiful apartment in the heart of Bay harbor Islands, nice floor, SS appliances, walk-in closets, open balcony, breathtaking sunsets. Quiet building walking distance to Bay Harbor Islands charming downtown.

29. 2012-06-11
    soldstatus $133,000 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Amazing location condo close to Bal Harbor shops. Wooden laminate flooring throughout. St Regis condominiums has a newly redone pool and social areas. Very spacious 1 plus den 1.5 bathrooms. Great investment!! Corporate owned. Easy to show!!

30. 2012-06-01
    soldstatus $133,000
31. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus $195,000
32. 2007-04-04
    soldstatus $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,351 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,351 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$4,351
• − Insurance: −$7,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,950
• − Management: −$3,950
• − HOA: −$11,136
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$15,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bay Harbor Islands

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Harbor Islands, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 14,435
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $399,000 MARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $412,000 MARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $413,500 MARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $414,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $415,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $416,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $418,000 MARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $420,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $425,000 MARMLS
• 2021-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-05 Sold (MLS) $242,500 MARMLS
• 2021-04-15 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2020-11-12 Price Changed $242,500 MARMLS
• 2020-08-21 Listed $245,000 MARMLS
• 2012-06-11 Sold (MLS) $133,000 MARMLS
• 2012-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-05 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MARMLS
• 2007-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,351 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.