9417 Falkirk Dr

El Paso, TX 79925

$219,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$572
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-254/mo
• Annual: $-3,051/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Scotsdale El (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 679 students, 73% FRL); Eastwood Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,265 students, 66% FRL); Eastwood H S (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,381 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.