9417 Falkirk Dr · El Paso, TX 79925

$219,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1957 7,560 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT HOME IS PRICED TO SELL AS IS! This charming single-story home nestled in the Scottsdale subdivision is move-in ready. It has been well-maintained by only two previous owners and features three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Additionally, the home includes a huge fenced-in backyard that is perfect for family gatherings. The location is highly convenient, with easy access to schools, shopping, restaurants, and the airport. It also offers easy access to the Montana Avenue expansion, allowing a quick commute to the east side.

Key facts

• Fenced-in backyard
• 7,560 sq ft lot
• Built 1957

Tags

• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• SCOTTSDALE SUBDIVISION
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• EASY ACCESS TO AIRPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fee inclusions

Exterior

• Utilities: Community sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1796
• Exterior features: Back yard access; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Scotsdale El (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 679 students, 73% FRL); Eastwood Middle (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,265 students, 66% FRL); Eastwood H S (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,381 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.2%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,090 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,840
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,842
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79925

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,768/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $175,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-192	+0% $-254	+5% $-316	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-328	+0% $-254	+5% $-181	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-143	-0.5pp $-198	base $-254	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3421 Rutherglen St El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.12mi
3217 Wedgewood Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	2061	$2,195	$1.07	12d	1	0.69mi
8700 Cielo Vista Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	2072	$1,900	$0.92	4d	1	0.77mi
2801 Hawick Rd El Paso, TX	3.0	3.0	1962	$1,650	$0.84	4d	1	0.80mi
3020 Wedgewood Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,800	$1.25	12d	1	0.81mi
3020 Wedgewood Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	25d	1	0.81mi
2708 Prestwick Rd El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1581	$1,600	$1.01	45d	1	0.91mi
9108 Shaver Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	2495	$2,800	$1.12	4d	1	1.04mi
1405 Cessna Dr Unit A El Paso, TX	2.0	1.5	1480	$1,095	$0.74	45d	1	1.07mi
9309 W H Burges Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,200	$1.24	4d	1	1.18mi
8316 W H Burges Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,700	$1.32	4d	1	1.19mi
10301 Album Ave El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$1,400	$0.80	45d	1	1.19mi
9304 Lait Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,655	$1.16	4d	1	1.20mi
8208 Dempsey Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,675	$1.30	4d	1	1.21mi
8701 Grover Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$2,900	$1.76	4d	1	1.29mi
1507 Dennis Cir El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,675	$1.26	20d	1	1.37mi
3208 Isla Morada Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 547-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $219,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,768 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,768 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,768
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ysleta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,826
• Composite: 25.65/100
• National rank: #7400
• State rank: #626 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,621
• Household income: $57,623
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 38% White 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 61% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.46%
• Current HPI: 244.2058
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.23%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $219,999 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,768 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.