315 W Newburg Ave

Mabel, MN 55954

$60,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 66 sqft · Built 1902 · SingleFamily · Pending · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $433/mo
• Annual: $5,190/yr
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.90%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#258 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabel-Canton Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #268 of 467 in MN (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Fillmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fillmore County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.