315 W Newburg Ave · Mabel, MN 55954

$60,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 66 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1902 0.26 ac lot ↓ 53% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

Key facts

• Outbuildings
• Private yard
• Workshop

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE YARD
• LARGE BARN
• OUTBUILDINGS
• HOME BASED BUSINESS
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#258 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabel-Canton Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #268 of 467 in MN (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Fillmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fillmore County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.90%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $41,755
• Equity at exit: $34,357

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $102,346
• Equity at exit: $59,592

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55954

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $577

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

2. 2026-05-04
   historical 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

3. 2026-03-06
   price $60,000 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

4. 2026-02-03
   price $65,000 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

5. 2025-12-09
   listed $70,000 Active 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Your new home with an open, spacious flowing floorplan, 3 bedrooms with room to grow. Enjoy the natural woodwork and hardwood floors on the main and upper levels. Relax in the private yard that's ready for your gardens. Large barn and outbuildings. Open your options with a home based business, crafts, a workshop. Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to schools, shopping, parks and ball fields. Minutes from main street, downtown, eateries, golf and lakes.

6. 2019-01-24
   soldstatus $113,000
7. 2019-01-22
   soldstatus $113,000 Sold 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Charming Victorian home with original character that's conveniently located 20 minutes from Decorah & within 1 hr of Rochester, Winona, & LaCrosse. This property sits on 2 city lots & features 2 sheds with over 1200 sq. ft of space. Gorgeous original woodwork-must see. Outside you'll enjoy your 3 season porch while listening to the water from the fish pond & enjoy the established perennial gardens

8. 2018-12-08
   historical 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Charming Victorian home with original character that's conveniently located 20 minutes from Decorah & within 1 hr of Rochester, Winona, & LaCrosse. This property sits on 2 city lots & features 2 sheds with over 1200 sq. ft of space. Gorgeous original woodwork-must see. Outside you'll enjoy your 3 season porch while listening to the water from the fish pond & enjoy the established perennial gardens

9. 2018-04-09
   listed $129,000 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   Charming Victorian home with original character that's conveniently located 20 minutes from Decorah & within 1 hr of Rochester, Winona, & LaCrosse. This property sits on 2 city lots & features 2 sheds with over 1200 sq. ft of space. Gorgeous original woodwork-must see. Outside you'll enjoy your 3 season porch while listening to the water from the fish pond & enjoy the established perennial gardens

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $4,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabel-Canton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2718540
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,793
• Composite: 46.24/100
• National rank: #5420
• State rank: #268 of 467 in MN

Livability — Mabel

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #5614

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabel, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,408

Population outlook (Fillmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,318 people
• By 2030: 19,765 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 18,559 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 17,194 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 14,253 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 10,645 · -47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 37% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fillmore

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.4% · R 61.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+21.9 2012: D+7.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Current HPI: 280.8988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-53.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $60,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $70,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-22 Sold (MLS) $113,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-09 Listed $129,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.