10237 Sleepy Hollow Rd

Elmo, TX 75161

$256,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $370/mo
• Annual: $4,440/yr
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $71,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,234 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.