10237 Sleepy Hollow Rd · Elmo, TX 75161

$256,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Over 1 acre has a large shed in the back and a couple of shed buildings instead of pond up front just got all kinds of trees and just really pretty and it& apos; s got a front gate that locks You just need a battery

Key facts

• Front gate
• Large shed
• Built 2000

Tags

• LARGE SHED
• FRONT GATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,234 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,119 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.18%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-18,121
• Equity at exit: $38,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $14,075
• Equity at exit: $22,177

Cash invested: $71,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75161

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,345
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $256,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $515	-5% $443	+0% $370	+5% $297	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $276	+0% $370	+5% $464	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $435	base $370	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,125
• Closing costs: $7,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $256,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $256,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $256,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $256,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $256,500 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $256,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $256,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $256,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $256,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $256,500 Active
16. 1997-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,694 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,889/yr (+$324/mo · 483.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,368
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$1,282
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − Depreciation: −$7,462
• Taxable income: $186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$45
• After-tax cash flow: $4,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmo

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1234
• US rank: #21588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,910
• Population (ZIP): 6,910

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.90%
• Current HPI: 255.8463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $256,500 FSBO.com
• 1997-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $805 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.