10762 Toddville Rd

Chance, MD 21821

$110,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $223/mo
• Annual: $2,672/yr
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.29%
• DSCR: 2.13
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $110k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.