10762 Toddville Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1951 1.00 ac lot $134/sqft · 32% below area Est $185k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away in a peaceful neighborhood next to Deal Island and the shores of Tangier Sound, this ranch-style home offers comfort and opportunity. Set on a 1-acre cleared, corner lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy the best of both worlds—serene coastal living with the convenience of Salisbury just under 30 minutes away, giving you easy access to shopping, dining, and recreation. The surrounding community is warm and welcoming, making it an ideal setting for those seeking a quiet retreat near the water without sacrificing everyday essentials. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold as-is and has been refreshed with new paint, offering a clean slate for your vision. With a bit of updating and remodeling, it’s a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to make it their own. Key updates include a BAT septic system installed in 2009, a new water pump in 2022, HVAC in 2024, and a Sentricon termite bait system added in April 2026—providing peace of mind as you plan your next steps.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $110k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.29%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,552
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -40.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10868 Mahlon Price Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0	904 (+10%)	18mo	$180,000	$199	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $74,330
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $208,211
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $125,000 Active 1090-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

    Tucked away in a peaceful neighborhood next to Deal Island and the shores of Tangier Sound, this ranch-style home offers comfort and opportunity. Set on a 1-acre cleared, corner lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy the best of both worlds—serene coastal living with the convenience of Salisbury just under 30 minutes away, giving you easy access to shopping, dining, and recreation. The surrounding community is warm and welcoming, making it an ideal setting for those seeking a quiet retreat near the water without sacrificing everyday essentials. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold as-is and has been refreshed with new paint, offering a clean slate for your vision. With a bit of updating and remodeling, it’s a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to make it their own. Key updates include a BAT septic system installed in 2009, a new water pump in 2022, HVAC in 2024, and a Sentricon termite bait system added in April 2026—providing peace of mind as you plan your next steps.

16. 2026-04-02
    historical $125,000 1090-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

    Tucked away in a peaceful neighborhood next to Deal Island and the shores of Tangier Sound, this ranch-style home offers comfort and opportunity. Set on a 1-acre cleared, corner lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy the best of both worlds—serene coastal living with the convenience of Salisbury just under 30 minutes away, giving you easy access to shopping, dining, and recreation. The surrounding community is warm and welcoming, making it an ideal setting for those seeking a quiet retreat near the water without sacrificing everyday essentials. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold as-is and has been refreshed with new paint, offering a clean slate for your vision. With a bit of updating and remodeling, it’s a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers ready to make it their own. Key updates include a BAT septic system installed in 2009, a new water pump in 2022, HVAC in 2024, and a Sentricon termite bait system added in April 2026—providing peace of mind as you plan your next steps.

17. 2000-01-06
    soldstatus $41,900
18. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus $41,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    CUTE RANCHER, CLOSE TO MARINA, GAS HEAT, CENTRAL AIR, VINYL, REPLACEMENT WINDOWS, VINYL SIDING, LARGE STORAGE SHED, 1 ACRE CORNER LOT, QUALIFIES FOR ALL TYPES OF FINANCING.

19. 1999-09-03
    historical 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    CUTE RANCHER, CLOSE TO MARINA, GAS HEAT, CENTRAL AIR, VINYL, REPLACEMENT WINDOWS, VINYL SIDING, LARGE STORAGE SHED, 1 ACRE CORNER LOT, QUALIFIES FOR ALL TYPES OF FINANCING.

20. 1999-04-06
    listed $41,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    CUTE RANCHER, CLOSE TO MARINA, GAS HEAT, CENTRAL AIR, VINYL, REPLACEMENT WINDOWS, VINYL SIDING, LARGE STORAGE SHED, 1 ACRE CORNER LOT, QUALIFIES FOR ALL TYPES OF FINANCING.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $2,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+198.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $41,900 Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (MLS) $41,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-09-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-04-06 Listed $41,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $701 · +1354.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.