Belmont (Asbury) Plan

Warsaw, KY 41095

$75,995D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,119/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-496/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $21,279

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#376 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Gallatin County (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #137 of 165 in KY (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Warsaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?