Belmont (Asbury) Plan · Warsaw, KY 41095

$75,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

$400/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The Belmont offers a smart, spacious layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This thoughtfully designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, providing plenty of room for family and guests. At the heart of the home, you'll find a beautiful, well-appointed kitchen that flows seamlessly into an expansive living area with extended length-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With its open design and generous proportions, the Belmont delivers both functionality and style in a home that truly feels inviting.

Key facts

• Listed 122 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Belmont (Asbury) Plan, Warsaw, KY 41095; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $75,995
• HOA & community: Association fee of $400

Exterior

• Home design: Belmont (Asbury) plan; New construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,193 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (7.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Warsaw — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#376 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Gallatin County (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #137 of 165 in KY (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Gallatin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $66,875 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $30,760
• Equity at exit: $59,675

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $91,849
• Equity at exit: $120,354

Cash invested: $21,279 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41095

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $70,015

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,999
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,995 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,995 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,995 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,995 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,995 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,995 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,995 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,995 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,995 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,995 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,995 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,995 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,995 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,995 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,074
• − Management: −$1,074
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable loss: −$1,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $-134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gallatin County
• NCES district ID: 2102130
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $46,041
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8195
• State rank: #137 of 165 in KY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #376
• US rank: #17814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,775

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,658 people
• By 2030: 8,616 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 8,410 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 8,140 · -6.0%
• By 2075: 7,308 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 6,671 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.9) · D 19.4% · R 79.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.6pp · 2024: -59.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.9 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.37%
• Current HPI: 293.2896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B