2435 Old Greenbrier Pike

Greenbrier, TN 37073

$270,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,152/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $39/mo
• Annual: $474/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Elementary (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #260 of 952 statewide, top 28%, 624 students, 0% FRL); Greenbrier High School (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #208 of 332 statewide, top 63%, 812 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Greenbrier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.