2435 Old Greenbrier Pike · Greenbrier, TN 37073

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2018 10,018 sqft lot Est $209k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom 2 bath home offering 1,188 sq ft of comfortable living space! Features include a cozy wood burning fireplace, big pantry, multiple outbuildings for storage, hobbies or workshop space, and plenty of potential both inside and out! Don't miss this opportunity to make this property your own! Additional opportunity available - adjoining lot with home may also be purchased!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Residential manufactured-on-land; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.23 acre (79 x 128.44 irregular)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary/Bedroom 1 approximately 13 x 13; Bedroom 2 approximately 9 x 13; Bedroom 3 approximately 9 x 13
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($474/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Greenbrier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenbrier Elementary (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #260 of 952 statewide, top 28%, 624 students, 0% FRL); Greenbrier High School (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #208 of 332 statewide, top 63%, 812 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,226 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,088
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2555 Nunley St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+3%)	8mo	$215,000	$176	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,332
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-33,135
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37073

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,589/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,102

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $116	+0% $39	+5% $-37	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-46	+0% $39	+5% $124	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $108	base $39	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 W College St Unit 2 Greenbrier, TN	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	5d	1	0.38mi
2126 Nunley St Greenbrier, TN	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	8d	1	0.69mi
2017 Smith Cir Greenbrier, TN	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,200	$1.53	8d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-29
    listed $280,000 Active
16. 2026-05-29
    historical $280,000
17. 2026-03-02
    historical
18. 2026-03-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,589 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,589
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$4,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $1,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robertson County
• NCES district ID: 4703600
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,503
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8313
• State rank: #82 of 139 in TN

Livability — Greenbrier

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #15098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenbrier, TN
• City population: 14,312
• Population (ZIP): 14,312

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,786 people
• By 2030: 74,478 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 76,948 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 77,618 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 77,545 · +6.5%
• By 2100: 72,836 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 24.0% · R 74.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -31.1pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+47.0 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+35.6 2008: R+31.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.44%
• Current HPI: 293.5595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $280,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $280,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,589 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.