3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,559 sqft ·
Built 2002
· Condo
· Active
· 183 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,340/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,384
Tax + insurance
−$396
HOA
−$797
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,121
Net cashflow
$1,641/mo
Annual
$19,695/yr
Cap rate
13.75%
Cash-on-cash
26.64%
DSCR
2.19
1% rule
2.02%
Cash to close
$73,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $264k).
It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $232k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Emma E. Booker Elementary School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,758 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 468 students, 93% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 42% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $140k; list at $264k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.0% in Sarasota — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-KKZ3G614491C70
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29