15 Mohican Ave

Landing, NJ 07850-1311

$445,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$608
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-562/mo
• Annual: $-6,749/yr
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (32.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Roxbury Township School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #164 of 472 in NJ (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,357 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (1,496 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morris County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $445k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.