15 Mohican Ave · Landing, NJ 07850-1311

$445,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1951 0.41 ac lot Est $504k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers an exceptional location defined by privacy, tranquility, and natural beauty. With a seasonal lake view of Lake Hopatcong, this home feels like a peaceful retreat perfect for those seeking serenity while still being close to everything. Included is the adjacent lot, providing even more space and potential. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the deck with plenty of privacy, taking in the peaceful, wooded setting. Inside, an updated open kitchen adds modern appeal and functionality, making the home move-in ready and inviting. A new front patio adds to the home's curb appeal. Conveniently located near Routes 15 and 80, this home is ideal for commuters while still offering that tucked-away feel. Located in desirable Roxbury Township with access to its well-regarded schools. Optional membership to Shore Hills Country Club allows you to fully embrace lake living with swimming, boating, and more. A rare opportunity to enjoy a serene peaceful home in an unbeatable location! Adjacent lot (21 Mohican) is included in the sale. Buyer is responsible for due diligence regarding zoning, permits and intended future use or improvements for vacant lot.

Key facts

• Updated open kitchen
• Seasonal lake view
• New front patio

Tags

• SEASONAL LAKE VIEW
• UPDATED OPEN KITCHEN
• NEW FRONT PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Roxbury Township School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #164 of 472 in NJ (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,357 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (1,496 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Morris County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $445k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $301,210 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $503,954
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -10.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $17,751
• Equity at exit: $200,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $113,410
• Equity at exit: $308,365

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07850-1311

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,012 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,075/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,724

Max offer price $345,649

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
569 Dell Rd Landing, NJ	3.0	1.0	800	$2,600	$3.25	43d	1	0.24mi
537 Dell Rd Landing, NJ	4.0	3.0	1341	$3,650	$2.72	1d	1	0.40mi
21 Sunset Ln Landing, NJ	3.0	1.0	946	$3,700	$3.91	1d	1	0.41mi
48 Henry Ct Mt Arlington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	1050	$2,745	$2.61	1d	16	0.47mi
1 Brookside Ln Mount Arlington, NJ	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,700	$2.47	1d	1	1.00mi
1 Hillside Dr Mount Arlington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,344	$2.67	1d	8	1.05mi
5 Burton Way Landing, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	975	$1,982	$2.03	1d	1	1.48mi
100 Fieldstone Dr Mt Arlington, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1210	$3,375	$2.79	1d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $445,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $445,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $445,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $449,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-17
    status Under Contract 1227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

    Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers an exceptional location defined by privacy, tranquility, and natural beauty. With a seasonal lake view of Lake Hopatcong, this home feels like a peaceful retreat perfect for those seeking serenity while still being close to everything. Included is the adjacent lot, providing even more space and potential. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the deck with plenty of privacy, taking in the peaceful, wooded setting. Inside, an updated open kitchen adds modern appeal and functionality, making the home move-in ready and inviting. A new front patio adds to the home's curb appeal. Conveniently located near Routes 15 and 80, this home is ideal for commuters while still offering that tucked-away feel. Located in desirable Roxbury Township with access to its well-regarded schools. Optional membership to Shore Hills Country Club allows you to fully embrace lake living with swimming, boating, and more. A rare opportunity to enjoy a serene peaceful home in an unbeatable location! Adjacent lot (21 Mohican) is included in the sale. Buyer is responsible for due diligence regarding zoning, permits and intended future use or improvements for vacant lot.

14. 2026-05-05
    listed $449,000 Active 1227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

    Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers an exceptional location defined by privacy, tranquility, and natural beauty. With a seasonal lake view of Lake Hopatcong, this home feels like a peaceful retreat perfect for those seeking serenity while still being close to everything. Included is the adjacent lot, providing even more space and potential. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the deck with plenty of privacy, taking in the peaceful, wooded setting. Inside, an updated open kitchen adds modern appeal and functionality, making the home move-in ready and inviting. A new front patio adds to the home's curb appeal. Conveniently located near Routes 15 and 80, this home is ideal for commuters while still offering that tucked-away feel. Located in desirable Roxbury Township with access to its well-regarded schools. Optional membership to Shore Hills Country Club allows you to fully embrace lake living with swimming, boating, and more. A rare opportunity to enjoy a serene peaceful home in an unbeatable location! Adjacent lot (21 Mohican) is included in the sale. Buyer is responsible for due diligence regarding zoning, permits and intended future use or improvements for vacant lot.

15. 2026-05-04
    historical $449,000 1227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1227 chars)

    Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers an exceptional location defined by privacy, tranquility, and natural beauty. With a seasonal lake view of Lake Hopatcong, this home feels like a peaceful retreat perfect for those seeking serenity while still being close to everything. Included is the adjacent lot, providing even more space and potential. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the deck with plenty of privacy, taking in the peaceful, wooded setting. Inside, an updated open kitchen adds modern appeal and functionality, making the home move-in ready and inviting. A new front patio adds to the home's curb appeal. Conveniently located near Routes 15 and 80, this home is ideal for commuters while still offering that tucked-away feel. Located in desirable Roxbury Township with access to its well-regarded schools. Optional membership to Shore Hills Country Club allows you to fully embrace lake living with swimming, boating, and more. A rare opportunity to enjoy a serene peaceful home in an unbeatable location! Adjacent lot (21 Mohican) is included in the sale. Buyer is responsible for due diligence regarding zoning, permits and intended future use or improvements for vacant lot.

16. 2017-04-28
    soldstatus $178,500
17. 2017-04-21
    soldstatus $178,500 Sold
18. 2017-02-27
    historical
19. 2016-07-22
    price $189,000
20. 2016-06-06
    listed $199,000 Active
21. 1987-07-31
    soldstatus $92,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,075 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,078 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,003/yr (+$250/mo · 59.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$5,075
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,892
• − Management: −$2,892
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$14,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,554
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roxbury Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3414340
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $100,991
• Composite: 42.16/100
• National rank: #3297
• State rank: #164 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Landing

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Landing, NJ

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 516,747 people
• By 2030: 524,603 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 539,582 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 548,986 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 571,326 · +10.6%
• By 2100: 561,122 · +8.6%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+383.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — GSMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $449,000 GSMLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $449,000 GSMLS
• 2017-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $178,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-21 Sold (MLS) $178,500 GSMLS
• 2017-02-27 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2016-07-22 Price Changed $189,000 GSMLS
• 2016-06-06 Listed $199,000 GSMLS
• 1987-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $92,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,075 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.