3104 E Ustick Rd

Caldwell, ID 83605

$57,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,585/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $855/mo
• Annual: $10,261/yr
• Cap rate: 24.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.73%
• DSCR: 3.84
• 1% rule: 2.76%
• Cash to close: $16,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Canyon Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 357 statewide, top 70%, 692 students, 33% FRL); Vallivue Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #40 of 169 statewide, top 26%, 122 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.