3104 E Ustick Rd · Caldwell, ID 83605

$57,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1983 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Singlewide, 2 beds. I Bath. On left side of Ustick. Close to Caldwell Bulevard and easy to get to Nampa or Caldwell as well to freeway. easy to get to shopping centers.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1983
• Listed 145 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No other financial amenities provided
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: Association fee charged annually

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Carport
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: City water service; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on a rented lot
• Construction: Built in 1983; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Manual sprinkler system; Property currently used as 2–4 units

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level; second bedroom approx. 12 x 12)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Canyon Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 357 statewide, top 70%, 692 students, 33% FRL); Vallivue Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #40 of 169 statewide, top 26%, 122 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.73%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $44,675
• Equity at exit: $8,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $107,118
• Equity at exit: $4,972

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83605

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 S Florida Ave Caldwell, ID	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	23d	1	0.50mi
5012 Hamlet Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	998	$1,550	$1.55	2d	2	0.63mi
3919 Thatcher Ln Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,645	$1.53	2d	41	0.73mi
4113 Saylor Ln Unit A Caldwell, ID	1.0	1.0	706	$1,550	$2.20	11d	1	0.79mi
4209 Saylor Ln Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,925	$1.85	21d	1	0.84mi
2106 Ison Ct Unit 1460907P Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	957	$3,066	$3.20	11d	1	0.84mi
1513 Indian Springs St Unit N302 Caldwell, ID	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,550	$1.52	2d	1	1.00mi
2012 Cambridge St Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	996	$2,050	$2.06	2d	1	1.09mi
3114 Iowa Ave Unit 1 Caldwell, ID	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,500	$1.47	14d	1	1.13mi
2003 E Linden St Unit 2 Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.0	930	$1,250	$1.34	14d	1	1.21mi
2509 S Ohio Ave Caldwell, ID	1.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	14d	1	1.22mi
4901 Maid Jessica St Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	14d	1	1.24mi
4005 Washington Ave Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	900	$1,535	$1.71	21d	1	1.24mi
2100 E Maple St Caldwell, ID	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	930	$1,150	$1.24	2d	1	1.25mi
3905 Idaho Ave Caldwell, ID	2.0	1.5	650	$1,350	$2.08	2d	1	1.29mi
2609 Red Robin Way Caldwell, ID	3.0	2.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	11d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,500 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,500 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,500 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,500 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,500 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $57,500 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,500 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,500 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,500 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,500 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,500 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,500 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    price $57,500
16. 2026-01-24
    listed $62,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,522
• − Management: −$1,522
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $9,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,385
• After-tax cash flow: $7,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 76,816
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 41,325
• Household income: $68,427
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 719.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.47%
• Current HPI: 366.7896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $57,500 IMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $62,500 IMLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $98 · +143.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.