18271 Via Aurelia Dr

New Caney, TX 77357

$175,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,091 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,454/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.