18271 Via Aurelia Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$175,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,091 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 3,362 sqft lot $160/sqft · 20% below area Est $203k · 14% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Private owner suite
• Flex space
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• FLEX SPACE
• PRIVATE OWNER SUITE
• FULL EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pool available through association
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Inframark); Annual association fee ($900); Community amenities: playground, community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Prewired for security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2024; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot setting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Pantry; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14 x 10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (22.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.

Recommended offer $135,829 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,812
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -13.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18328 Buscemi Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	14mo	$232,990	$215	74
18319 Palazzo Romano Ln	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	15mo	$204,990	$202	73
18433 Dicarlo Dr	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	14mo	$201,990	$199	72
18414 Dicarlo Dr	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	15mo	$201,990	$199	71
21483 Montecagnano Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	15mo	$236,990	$219	70
21459 Montecagnano Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	15mo	$232,990	$215	68
21443 Montecagnano Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	14mo	$234,990	$217	68
18318 Palazzo Romano Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	16mo	$214,990	$181	65
18687 San Salvo Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	7mo	$199,990	$168	64
18425 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	15mo	$211,990	$178	63
18413 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	15mo	$211,990	$178	63
18722 Clearwater Brook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+9%)	3mo	$204,500	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-47,009
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-76,646
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$545 /mo · $6,542/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $135,829

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	4d	1	0.04mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,750	$1.57	5d	1	0.04mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	24d	1	1.24mi
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $175,000 Active 950-char remark
15. 2025-09-06
    historical $1,600
16. 2025-09-05
    historical
17. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,600
18. 2025-07-01
    historical $1,600
19. 2025-07-01
    listed $1,600
20. 2025-06-24
    price $190,000
21. 2025-05-23
    listed $195,000 Active
22. 2025-05-20
    historical
23. 2024-12-30
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

24. 2024-12-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

25. 2024-12-11
    price $201,990

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

26. 2024-11-27
    price $180,000

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

27. 2024-11-27
    price $201,990

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

28. 2024-11-22
    listed $180,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,542 · $545/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,542 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$6,542
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Tavola West is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a buyer seeking a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+486.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,542 · +486.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.