Is 18271 Via Aurelia Dr in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.2% cap rate and $-8/mo modeled cash flow at a $154,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18271 Via Aurelia Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,733/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.81

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +13.0/30.0
1% rule +6.3/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
DSCR +3.9/10.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$154,000

18271 Via Aurelia Dr · New Caney, TX 77357

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,091 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 3,362 sqft lot Garage $141/sqft · 25% below area Est $205k · 25% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

WHY WAIT? YOUR NEXT CHAPTER STARTS IN THE GORGEOUS TAVOLA WEST! Built in 2024, this Lennar Kofa plan in Tavola West pairs a bright, modern style home with an open layout and a neighborhood pool & playground to enjoy beyond your front door! The open kitchen, dining & living area keeps conversation flowing, whether you're cooking dinner or hosting friends. White cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a gas range & breakfast bar give the kitchen a crisp look. Waterproof vinyl flooring brings warmth and protection to the main living space.

Key facts

Open layout
Neighborhood pool
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $154k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (0.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
Recommended offer: $153k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.

Recommended offer $152,543 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.13% ✓
Cap rate: 6.23%
Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
DSCR: 0.99
GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $205,452
List price: $154,000
Delta: -25.04%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18328 Buscemi Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	19mo	$232,990	$215	70
21365 Carosella Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	5mo	$184,900	$156	70
18319 Palazzo Romano Ln	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	20mo	$204,990	$202	69
18433 Dicarlo Dr	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	18mo	$201,990	$199	68
18414 Dicarlo Dr	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	20mo	$201,990	$199	67
21483 Montecagnano Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	20mo	$236,990	$219	67
21459 Montecagnano Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	19mo	$232,990	$215	65
21443 Montecagnano Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	18mo	$234,990	$217	64
18687 San Salvo Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	12mo	$199,990	$168	60
18425 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	19mo	$211,990	$178	59
18413 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	19mo	$211,990	$178	59
18722 Clearwater Brook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+9%)	8mo	$204,500	$172	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.7%
Equity multiple: 0.30×
Total profit: $-29,994
Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

IRR: -25.1%
Equity multiple: -0.03×
Total profit: $-44,272
Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $196,999 ($151/sqft)
Median days on market: 52 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +24.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1516
Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,733 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$808
Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,165/yr
Insurance: −$64
HOA: −$75
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $152,543

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $35	+0% $-8	+5% $-52	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-77	+0% $-8	+5% $60	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $31	base $-8	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $38,500
Closing costs: $4,620
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	144d	1	0.04mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,500	$1.34	121d	1	0.04mi
21431 Carosella Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	3.0	1189	$2,195	$1.85	0d	1	0.24mi
21535 Carosella Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	3.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	10d	1	0.35mi
21950 Caney Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,850	$1.57	126d	1	0.96mi
23735 Wood Green Terrace Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,985	$1.60	0d	1	1.08mi
18932 Buckley Oak Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,864	$1.25	77d	1	1.22mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	165d	1	1.24mi
20308 South Park New Caney, TX	1.0	1.0	722	$1,090	$1.51	77d	1	1.25mi
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	184d	1	1.42mi
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	10d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Annual association fee of $900Community pool and playground

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage1 garage space
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Construction: Built in 2024Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation

Interior

Kitchen: Gas oven
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms, both on the second floor
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating and electric heatingCentral air conditioning with electric cooling

HOA detail $75/mo · $900/yr

Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-04

days on market $154,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $154,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $154,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $154,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $154,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-30

price $154,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-27

pricedays on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $164,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $164,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-23

remarks 683-char remark
2026-10-23

pricedays on marketlisting id $164,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,165 · $430/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,165 · $430/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,793
− Mortgage interest: −$8,626
− Property taxes: −$5,165
− Insurance: −$770
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
− Management: −$1,663
− HOA: −$900
− Depreciation: −$4,480
Taxable loss: −$2,475

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Tavola West is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a buyer seeking a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Caney El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Keefer Crossing Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: New Caney ISD
NCES district ID: 4832400
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $55,380
Composite: 27.97/100
National rank: #6857
State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

2026-10-23 Listed $164,000 HARMLS
2026-08-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
2025-09-06 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
2025-07-01 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
2025-06-24 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
2025-05-23 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2024-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
2024-12-11 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
2024-11-27 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
2024-11-27 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
2024-11-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+115.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,165 · -21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…