Is 18271 Via Aurelia Dr in New Caney, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.3% cap rate and $-288/mo modeled cash flow at a $175,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 18271 Via Aurelia Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,675/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.4

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.7/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
1% rule +4.6/10.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$175,000

18271 Via Aurelia Dr · New Caney, TX 77357

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,091 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 3,362 sqft lot Garage $160/sqft · 20% below area Est $203k · 14% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Homes Wellton Collection, ''Kofa'' Plan with Elevation ''D" in Beautiful Tavola West! In this terrific new home, an open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, a room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for a secondary bedroom or home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Private owner suite
Flex space
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (25.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (4.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $131k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.

Recommended offer $130,846 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.96% ✗
Cap rate: 4.32%
Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $203,047
List price: $175,000
Delta: -13.81%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18328 Buscemi Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	16mo	$232,990	$215	72
21365 Carosella Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	2mo	$184,900	$156	72
18319 Palazzo Romano Ln	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	17mo	$204,990	$202	71
18433 Dicarlo Dr	0.10mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	15mo	$201,990	$199	71
18414 Dicarlo Dr	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,013 (-7%)	17mo	$201,990	$199	70
21483 Montecagnano Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	17mo	$236,990	$219	69
21459 Montecagnano Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	16mo	$232,990	$215	67
21443 Montecagnano Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (-1%)	15mo	$234,990	$217	67
18687 San Salvo Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	9mo	$199,990	$168	63
18425 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	16mo	$211,990	$178	62
18413 Dicarlo Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,189 (+9%)	16mo	$211,990	$178	61
18722 Clearwater Brook Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+9%)	5mo	$204,500	$172	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.8%
Equity multiple: -0.04×
Total profit: $-50,994
Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

IRR: -69.4%
Equity multiple: -0.73×
Total profit: $-84,657
Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $195,500 ($149/sqft)
Median days on market: 125 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +25.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

Home prices YoY: -24.7%
Rents YoY: 0.2%
Active inventory: 1238
Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,675 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$918
Tax from tax record: −$545 /mo · $6,542/yr
Insurance: −$73
HOA: −$75
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $130,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-238	+0% $-288	+5% $-337	+10% $-387
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-354	+0% $-288	+5% $-222	+10% $-156
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-243	base $-288	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $43,750
Closing costs: $5,250
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18243 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1477	$1,725	$1.17	53d	1	0.04mi
18242 Via Aurelia Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1117	$1,500	$1.34	30d	1	0.04mi
21950 Caney Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,850	$1.57	34d	1	0.96mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	73d	1	1.24mi
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	93d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Pool available through association
HOA & community: Homeowners association (Inframark)Annual association fee ($900)Community amenities: playground, community pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
Security: Prewired for security
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2024Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Cement siding
Exterior features: Fenced backyardSubdivision lot settingAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDisposalRefrigeratorBreakfast barPantryENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14 x 10)Bedroom on second level (approx. 10 x 9)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fanProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Breakfast barGranite countersKitchen/family room comboPantryProgrammable thermostatVentilation (improved indoor air quality)
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $175,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $6,542 · $545/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $6,542 · $545/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,096
− Mortgage interest: −$9,803
− Property taxes: −$6,542
− Insurance: −$875
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
− Management: −$1,608
− HOA: −$900
− Depreciation: −$5,091
Taxable loss: −$6,331

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,519
After-tax cash flow: $-1,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Tavola West is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great opportunity for a buyer seeking a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Caney El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Keefer Crossing Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: New Caney ISD
NCES district ID: 4832400
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $55,380
Composite: 27.97/100
National rank: #6857
State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 37,592
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 37,592
Household income: $76,050
Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
Current HPI: 266.8315
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
2025-09-06 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
2025-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
2025-07-01 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
2025-07-01 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
2025-06-24 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
2025-05-23 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
2025-05-20 Coming Soon — HARMLS
2024-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2024-12-11 Pending — HARMLS
2024-12-11 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
2024-11-27 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
2024-11-27 Price Changed $201,990 HARMLS
2024-11-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+486.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,542 · +486.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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