404 Circle Dr

Ashland, MO 65010

$219,900C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,352 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,205/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#155 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southern Boone County R-I (rural): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #66 of 324 in MO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southern Boone Primary (493 students, 14% FRL); Southern Boone Middle (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 629 students, 16% FRL); Southern Boone High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 540 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.