404 Circle Dr · Ashland, MO 65010

$219,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1968 0.31 ac lot $93/sqft · 35% below area Est $336k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Corner lot
• Close to local park

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DECK OVERLOOKING FIRE PIT
• CLOSE TO LOCAL PARK
• SOUTHERN BOONE SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#155 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southern Boone County R-I (rural): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #66 of 324 in MO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southern Boone Primary (493 students, 14% FRL); Southern Boone Middle (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 629 students, 16% FRL); Southern Boone High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 540 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,908
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -34.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Hickam Aly	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,640 (+12%)	5mo	$350,000	$133	64
6515 Gateway Arch Way	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,328 (-1%)	6mo	$460,000	$198	61
6495 Gateway Arch Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,292 (-3%)	3mo	$470,000	$205	59
14703 Quail Ridge Rd	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,570 (+9%)	16mo	$400,000	$156	47
6595 Gateway Arch Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+3%)	14mo	$549,999	$227	47
504 Breton Way	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-15%)	1mo	$349,900	$175	40
6320 Gateway Arch	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,050 (-13%)	15mo	$419,900	$205	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,361
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $16,912
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65010

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $475	-5% $413	+0% $350	+5% $288	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $264	+0% $350	+5% $437	+10% $524
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $406	base $350	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4680 Treaty Dr Ashland, MO	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	15d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $219,900 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

3. 2026-03-24
   price $224,900 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

4. 2026-03-10
   status Active 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

5. 2026-02-28
   status Pending 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

6. 2026-02-11
   price $234,900 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

7. 2026-01-22
   listed $245,000 Active 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   At no fault to the seller is home is back on the market. This is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath ranch home on a corner lot! Main-level living, a covered front porch and deck overlooking a fire pit area in backyard. Great neighborhood close to local park and convenient location to stores and restaurants. Southern Boone School District. Seller is offering a $3000.00 credit to buyers closing cost.

8. 2026-01-01
   price $273,000
9. 2025-12-02
   price $278,000
10. 2025-11-17
    price $286,500
11. 2025-11-08
    listed $295,000 Active
12. 2018-03-19
    soldstatus
13. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus
14. 2014-06-03
    listed $49,900
15. 2014-04-22
    listed $62,900
16. 2013-10-04
    listed $67,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $649
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $4,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Boone County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2928560
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,240
• Composite: 39.98/100
• National rank: #3833
• State rank: #66 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #8688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, MO
• City population: 7,105
• Population (ZIP): 7,105

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.49%
• Current HPI: 227.6769
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+223.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — JCMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $219,900 JCMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $224,900 JCMLS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — JCMLS
• 2026-02-28 Pending — JCMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $234,900 JCMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $245,000 JCMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $273,000 JCMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $278,000 JCMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $286,500 JCMLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $295,000 JCMLS
• 2018-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2014-06-03 Listed $49,900 CBORMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listed $62,900 CBORMLS
• 2013-10-04 Listed $67,900 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.