130 E Lacey Rd

Forked River, NJ 08731

$450,000F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$606
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-382/mo
• Annual: $-4,583/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $450k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.