130 E Lacey Rd · Forked River, NJ 08731

$450,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1949 0.36 ac lot $402/sqft · at area comps Est $441k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity in Forked River – 130 E Lacey Rd This property presents a unique opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and create value. Located in a desirable area of Forked River where new construction homes are being built and selling at premium prices, this property offers strong upside potential. Being sold strictly AS-IS, the seller makes no warranties or representations as to the condition of the home. ⚠️ Home is currently owner-occupied – NO SHOWINGS. Please do not approach or disturb the occupants under any circumstances. Per the seller’s request, no interior access or photos are available. This is an ideal project for those with vision seeking a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or redevelopment opportunity in a growing market. Buyer is responsible for all inspections, certifications, and due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $450k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,129 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,199
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: 1.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 E Lacey Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,266 (+13%)	4mo	$271,169	$214	57
615 Beach Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+5%)	2mo	$310,000	$263	45
455 Commodore Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (+13%)	9mo	$389,900	$307	40
418 Riverview Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	15mo	$340,000	$354	40
473 Admiral Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (+4%)	18mo	$380,000	$327	38
230 Maple Ln	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,243 (+11%)	16mo	$434,999	$350	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-97,284
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-116,195
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$419 /mo · $5,027/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,755

Max offer price $382,529

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $450,000 Active 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    Investor Opportunity in Forked River – 130 E Lacey Rd This property presents a unique opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers looking to renovate and create value. Located in a desirable area of Forked River where new construction homes are being built and selling at premium prices, this property offers strong upside potential. Being sold strictly AS-IS, the seller makes no warranties or representations as to the condition of the home. ⚠️ Home is currently owner-occupied – NO SHOWINGS. Please do not approach or disturb the occupants under any circumstances. Per the seller’s request, no interior access or photos are available. This is an ideal project for those with vision seeking a fix-and-flip, rental investment, or redevelopment opportunity in a growing market. Buyer is responsible for all inspections, certifications, and due diligence.

15. 2018-02-01
    historical
16. 2018-01-31
    historical
17. 2017-07-21
    price $200,000
18. 2017-07-21
    price $200,000
19. 2017-07-14
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2017-07-14
    listed $185,000 Active
21. 2001-03-12
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,027 · $419/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,116 · $676/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,089/yr (+$257/mo · 61.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$5,027
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,140
• − Management: −$3,140
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$12,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forked River, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-01-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-21 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-21 Price Changed $200,000 MOMLS
• 2017-07-14 Listed $185,000 MOMLS
• 2017-07-14 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,027 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.