468 Neptune Dr

Nipomo, CA 93444

$369,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,315/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $239/mo
• Annual: $2,863/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $103,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#526 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A-, housing B; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $370k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.3% in Nipomo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.