468 Neptune Dr · Nipomo, CA 93444

$369,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Manufactured public records · 302 Days on market

Built 1967 6,000 sqft lot $287/sqft · 18% below area Est $453k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Large yard
• Long driveway

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• HUGE WORKSHOP
• LONG DRIVEWAY
• LARGE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.3% in Nipomo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#526 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A-, housing B; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $370k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.76%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,964
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -18.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1127 Starlite	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+0%)	6mo	$353,000	$272	88
384 Callisto Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,332 (+3%)	10mo	$459,000	$345	76
426 Polaris Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	3mo	$410,000	$305	74
326 Venus Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	12mo	$460,000	$342	73
328 Mars Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	10mo	$515,000	$383	70
469 Jupiter Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	15mo	$499,000	$371	67
361 Uranus Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	17mo	$400,000	$298	65
1180 Starlite	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,113 (-14%)	4mo	$460,000	$413	64
457 Polaris	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-11%)	7mo	$350,000	$304	59
386 Neptune Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,398 (+8%)	21mo	$565,000	$404	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-44,801
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-19,681
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93444

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,437/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,013

Max offer price $369,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $448	-5% $343	+0% $239	+5% $134	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $108	+0% $239	+5% $370	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $333	base $239	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Peregrine Ln Nipomo, CA	3.0	2.0	1332	$3,499	$2.63	24d	1	0.68mi
838 Tanis Pl Nipomo, CA	3.0	2.0	1817	$3,540	$1.95	44d	1	0.90mi
516 Adina Way Nipomo, CA	2.0	1.5	964	$2,650	$2.75	44d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $369,900 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-04-28
   historical
8. 2026-01-28
   status Active 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

9. 2026-01-25
   status Pending Sale 207-char remark

   Show marketing remark (207 chars)

   Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

10. 2026-01-25
    price $369,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

11. 2026-01-23
    status Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

12. 2025-12-19
    price $369,900
13. 2025-12-01
    status Active
14. 2025-11-30
    historical 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

15. 2025-10-16
    historical
16. 2025-09-29
    price $450,000

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

17. 2025-09-29
    price $450,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

18. 2025-08-16
    price $480,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

19. 2025-08-11
    price $480,000
20. 2025-06-10
    listed $485,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

21. 2025-06-10
    listed $485,000 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Great Investment break in Nipomo, California! Manufactured Home on Land. Diamond in the Rough but Lots of Possibilities. Huge workshop, Long Driveway and Large Yard. Call now to see this Golden Opportunity!

22. 2017-04-12
    historical
23. 2007-11-21
    soldstatus $180,000
24. 2007-11-21
    soldstatus $171,000
25. 2007-09-19
    listed $229,000
26. 2006-10-18
    listed $245,000
27. 2001-02-23
    soldstatus $91,000
28. 2001-02-23
    soldstatus $91,000
29. 2001-02-23
    soldstatus $91,000
30. 2000-12-26
    listed $92,900
31. 2000-12-26
    listed $92,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,437 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,437 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$3,437
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,182
• − Management: −$3,182
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$3,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $3,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucia Mar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,681
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5782
• State rank: #433 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Nipomo

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #17699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nipomo, CA
• City population: 21,495
• Population (ZIP): 21,495

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 23% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.36%
• Current HPI: 366.0133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+298.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $369,900 CRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $369,900 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Relisted — NSBCRMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $450,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $450,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $480,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $480,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $485,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $485,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2017-04-12 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 2007-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-21 Sold (MLS) $180,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2007-09-19 Listed $229,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2006-10-18 Listed $245,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2001-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-23 Sold (MLS) $91,000 CRMLS
• 2001-02-23 Sold (MLS) $91,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2000-12-26 Listed $92,900 CRMLS
• 2000-12-26 Listed $92,900 NSBCRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,437 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.