1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
395 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Manufactured
· Active
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,106/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$67
HOA
−$205
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$232
Net cashflow
$130/mo
Annual
$1,560/yr
Cap rate
8.03%
Cash-on-cash
6.19%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
1.23%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#174 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Gila Ridge High School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #263 of 381 statewide, top 70%, 2,309 students, 55% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $73k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Fortuna Foothills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29