2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,463 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 180 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,919/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,935
Tax + insurance
−$506
HOA
−$398
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$613
Net cashflow
$-533/mo
Annual
$-6,396/yr
Cap rate
4.56%
Cash-on-cash
-6.19%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$103,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-533 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (25.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (20.9% below list).
It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $275k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $170k; list at $369k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-KNDZXB4F0MPM8W
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29