Aria Plan

Edgewater, FL 32132

$366,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 884 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,744/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,946
• Tax + insurance: −$1,045
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-823/mo
• Annual: $-9,875/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $103,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $367k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-823 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 884 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#329 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgewater Public School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 504 students, 64% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,744/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 25% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 884 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.