Aria Plan · Edgewater, FL 32132

$366,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 884 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aria is one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Oak Leaf community in New Smyrna Beach, Florida. With multiple exteriors to choose from, the Aria is a popular home. Inside this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home, you'll find 1,672 square feet of comfortable living. This all-concrete block constructed, one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen overlooking the living area, dining room, and covered lanai. Entertaining is a breeze, as this popular single-family home features a living and dining in the heart of the home, with covered lanai just steps away in your backyard. The spacious kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a convenient island, and walk-in pantry with ample storage. In every bedroom you'll have carpeted floors and a closet in each room. Whether these rooms become bedrooms, office spaces, or other bonus rooms, there is sure to be comfort. The primary bedroom located in the rear of the home has its own attached bathroom that features a walk-in closet and all the space you need to get ready in the morning. Sharing a sink isn't a worry with the double vanity. Two additional bedrooms share a second bathroom. This home also features a nice laundry room space with privacy doors and a two-car garage for parking or storage. Like all homes in Oak Leaf, the Aria includes smart home technology, which allows you to control your home anytime with your smart device while near or away.

Key facts

• Covered lanai
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 884 days

Tags

• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• COVERED LANAI

🏗️ New construction. The $366,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $370,998.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $367k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-823 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#329 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgewater Public School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 504 students, 64% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,744/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 25% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 884 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,917 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 884 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,998
• List price: $366,990
• Delta: -1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1848 Red Rock Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	1mo	$375,997	$225	98
1901 Deep Lake Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,672 (0%)	2mo	$364,990	$218	97
1902 Deep Lake Cir	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	3mo	$390,000	$213	74
1527 Delphi Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+3%)	2mo	$395,000	$229	68
2250 Lake Preserve Cir	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+9%)	2mo	$349,000	$191	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-112,228
• Equity at exit: $55,317

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-163,984
• Equity at exit: $32,077

Cash invested: $103,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $370,000 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32132

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,946
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,565/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-823

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,785

Max offer price $251,917

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-567	-5% $-695	+0% $-823	+5% $-951	+10% $-1,079
Rent	-10% $-1,040	-5% $-931	+0% $-823	+5% $-715	+10% $-606
Rate	-1.0pp $-636	-0.5pp $-729	base $-823	+0.5pp $-919	+1.0pp $-1,017

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,750
• Closing costs: $11,130
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1822 Red Rock Rd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$3,000	$1.77	164d	1	0.07mi
2219 Lake Preserve Cir New Smyrna Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,400	$1.86	10d	1	0.29mi
1664 Great Osprey Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1457	$2,195	$1.51	10d	1	0.30mi
1731 Red Rock Rd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,475	$1.44	107d	1	0.32mi
1601 Delphi Way New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,500	$1.45	133d	1	0.34mi
2286 Swoope Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,600	$1.97	133d	1	1.06mi
512 Wildwood Dr Edgewater, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,020	$1.41	35d	1	1.22mi
209 Lone Pine Dr Edgewater, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,800	$1.67	40d	1	1.23mi
308 Wildwood Dr Edgewater, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,195	$1.48	160d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-01
   days on market $366,990 Active 884 DOM
2. 2026-09-30
   days on market $366,990 Active 883 DOM
3. 2026-09-29
   days on market $366,990 Active 882 DOM
4. 2026-09-28
   days on market $366,990 Active 881 DOM
5. 2026-09-27
   days on market $366,990 Active 880 DOM
6. 2026-09-25
   days on market $366,990 Active 878 DOM
7. 2026-09-24
   days on market $366,990 Active 877 DOM
8. 2026-09-22
   days on market $366,990 Active 875 DOM
9. 2026-09-21
   days on market $366,990 Active 874 DOM
10. 2026-09-20
    days on market $366,990 Active 873 DOM
11. 2026-09-19
    days on market $366,990 Active 872 DOM
12. 2026-09-18
    days on market $366,990 Active 871 DOM
13. 2026-09-17
    days on market $366,990 Active 870 DOM
14. 2026-09-16
    days on market $366,990 Active 869 DOM
15. 2026-09-15
    days on market $366,990 Active 868 DOM
16. 2026-09-14
    days on market $366,990 Active 867 DOM
17. 2026-09-14
    days on market $366,990 Active 866 DOM
18. 2026-09-12
    days on market $366,990 Active 865 DOM
19. 2026-09-11
    days on market $366,990 Active 864 DOM
20. 2026-09-05
    days on market $366,990 Active 858 DOM
21. 2026-09-04
    days on market $366,990 Active 857 DOM
22. 2026-09-03
    days on market $366,990 Active 856 DOM
23. 2026-08-31
    days on market $366,990 Active 853 DOM
24. 2026-08-29
    days on market $366,990 Active 851 DOM
25. 2026-08-28
    days on market $366,990 Active 850 DOM
26. 2026-08-27
    days on market $366,990 Active 849 DOM
27. 2026-08-26
    days on market $366,990 Active 848 DOM
28. 2026-08-25
    days on market $366,990 Active 847 DOM
29. 2026-08-24
    days on market $366,990 Active 846 DOM
30. 2026-08-23
    days on market $366,990 Active 845 DOM
31. 2026-08-21
    days on market $366,990 Active 843 DOM
32. 2026-08-20
    days on market $366,990 Active 842 DOM
33. 2026-08-19
    days on market $366,990 Active 841 DOM
34. 2026-08-18
    days on market $366,990 Active 840 DOM
35. 2026-08-17
    days on market $366,990 Active 839 DOM
36. 2026-08-16
    days on market $366,990 Active 838 DOM
37. 2026-08-15
    days on market $366,990 Active 837 DOM
38. 2026-08-15
    days on market $366,990 Active 836 DOM
39. 2026-08-13
    days on market $366,990 Active 835 DOM
40. 2026-08-12
    days on market $366,990 Active 834 DOM
41. 2026-08-11
    days on market $366,990 Active 833 DOM
42. 2026-08-10
    days on market $366,990 Active 832 DOM
43. 2026-08-09
    days on market $366,990 Active 831 DOM
44. 2026-08-08
    days on market $366,990 Active 830 DOM
45. 2026-08-07
    days on market $366,990 Active 829 DOM
46. 2026-08-06
    days on market $366,990 Active 828 DOM
47. 2026-08-05
    days on market $366,990 Active 827 DOM
48. 2026-08-04
    days on market $366,990 Active 826 DOM
49. 2026-08-03
    days on market $366,990 Active 825 DOM
50. 2026-07-31
    days on market $366,990 Active 822 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,782
• − Property taxes: −$5,565
• − Insurance: −$6,973
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,634
• − Management: −$2,634
• − Depreciation: −$10,793
• Taxable loss: −$16,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern updates and a move-in-ready appearance. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Edgewater Public School B- FL #690/2,144 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Edgewater

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #329
• US rank: #5753

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Edgewater, FL
• County: Volusia · 572,749 people
• City population: 18,726
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,132
• Household income: $53,860
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

---

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.25%
• Current HPI: 366.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $366,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $364,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $359,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $357,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $355,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $350,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $334,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-30 Listed $354,990 Zillow