607 W Tucson Ave

Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$950,000F

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Active · 276 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,318/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,327
• Net cashflow: $-621/mo
• Annual: $-7,454/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-155/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $840k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $632k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $632k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 281 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $281k; list at $950k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,318/mo this rent would consume 117% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 3117% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?