607 W Tucson Ave · Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$950,000

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,394 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1979 $397/sqft · 10% above area Est $865k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity close to NAU and downtown! This 4-Plex has had long term tenants and a 0 percent vacancy history. Four 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units with separate backyards. Separate gas and electric meters. A lucrative opportunity!

Key facts

• Separate backyards
• Long term tenants
• Investor opportunity

Tags

• INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY
• LONG TERM TENANTS
• SEPARATE BACKYARDS
• LUCRATIVE OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-155/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $840k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $632k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $632k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 281 active listings in the ZIP; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,318/mo this rent would consume 117% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 3117% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $281k; list at $950k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $631,800 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $865,237
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: 9.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-209,197
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-294,497
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86001

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 50.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,816/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,327
• Net cashflow: $-621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,104

Max offer price $840,266

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-352	+0% $-621	+5% $-890	+10% $-1,159
Rent	-10% $-1,120	-5% $-871	+0% $-621	+5% $-372	+10% $-122
Rate	-1.0pp $-143	-0.5pp $-380	base $-621	+0.5pp $-867	+1.0pp $-1,118

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$6,316
Total (4 units)			$6,318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $950,000 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $950,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $950,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $950,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $950,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $950,000 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $950,000 Active 268 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $950,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2025-09-05
   listed $950,000 Active 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   Investor opportunity close to NAU and downtown! This 4-Plex has had long term tenants and a 0 percent vacancy history. Four 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units with separate backyards. Separate gas and electric meters. A lucrative opportunity!

10. 2018-05-03
    historical
11. 2003-04-11
    soldstatus $281,000
12. 2002-12-01
    soldstatus $281,000
13. 2002-08-14
    listed $282,500
14. 2001-06-01
    soldstatus $255,000
15. 2001-05-31
    soldstatus $275,000
16. 2000-12-12
    listed $269,000
17. 1993-08-31
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,270 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,454/yr (+$288/mo · 122.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,816
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,065
• − Management: −$6,065
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable loss: −$24,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,312
• Household income: $64,626
• Rent vs Own: 63.2% rent · 36.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3117.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 15% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.37%
• Current HPI: 393.2551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+660.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-05 Listed $950,000 NAZMLS
• 2018-05-03 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2003-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $281,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $281,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-14 Listed $282,500 NAZMLS
• 2001-06-01 Sold (MLS) $255,000 NAZMLS
• 2001-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-12 Listed $269,000 NAZMLS
• 1993-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,816 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.