220 Mays Creek Rd

Foxworth, MS 39483

$179,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $410/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (17.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#246 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Marion County School District (rural): math 37% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #62 of 130 in MS (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Marion Primary School (math 72% / reading 37%, grade C, #43 of 375 statewide, top 12%, 352 students, 100% FRL); West Marion Elementary (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #60 of 179 statewide, top 37%, 259 students, 100% FRL); West Marion High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 569 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.