220 Mays Creek Rd · Foxworth, MS 39483

$179,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1982 5.00 ac lot Est $179k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming brick home on 5 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end drive in the Marion County School District. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features a functional layout, a 1-car garage, and a gravel driveway. The property offers a spacious yard with mature trees, established azalea bushes, and a sweet olive tree, creating a peaceful setting. Enjoy the front porch with two swings--perfect for relaxing and taking in the surroundings. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from Columbia and 20 minutes from Tylertown, offering a great balance of privacy and accessibility.

Key facts

• Quiet dead-end drive
• Spacious yard
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• 5 ACRES
• QUIET DEAD-END DRIVE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• MATURE TREES
• ESTABLISHED AZALEA BUSHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#246 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Marion County School District (rural): math 37% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #62 of 130 in MS (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,286 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,850
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Mays Creek Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,225 (0%)	0mo	$179,000	$146	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-26,874
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,778
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39483

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,393/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $85	+0% $34	+5% $-17	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-24	+0% $34	+5% $92	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $80	base $34	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,393 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,393
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$2,676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$642
• After-tax cash flow: $1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802820
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $30,866
• Composite: 26.9/100
• National rank: #7089
• State rank: #62 of 130 in MS

Livability — Foxworth

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #20172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,003

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,813 people
• By 2030: 21,301 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 18,176 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 15,215 · -33.3%
• By 2075: 9,388 · -58.8%
• By 2100: 5,335 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.6) · D 28.7% · R 70.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -41.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.09%
• Current HPI: 146.6775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Listed $179,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,393 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.