8638 Lee Hwy

Rural Retreat, VA 24368

$180,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $111/mo
• Annual: $1,331/yr
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $119 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in VA, #4,304 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $180k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Rural Retreat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.