8638 Lee Hwy · Rural Retreat, VA 24368

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1997 2.50 ac lot Est $179k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• One-level living
• Updated lvp flooring

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• METAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED LVP FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); 2.5-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Rural Retreat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#134 in VA, #4,304 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $119 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $180k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,945 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,848
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8234 W Lee Hwy	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	9mo	$179,000	$138	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,277
• Equity at exit: $52,863

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $34,994
• Equity at exit: $64,022

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24368

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $657/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $180,000 Active
17. 2023-10-16
    soldstatus $67,000 Closed 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

18. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus $67,000
19. 2023-09-19
    historical Active Under Contract 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

20. 2023-08-29
    price $69,900 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

21. 2023-08-29
    status Active 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

22. 2023-08-21
    historical 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

23. 2023-07-12
    price $79,900 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

24. 2023-06-08
    status Active 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

25. 2023-02-09
    listed Active Under Contract 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

26. 2022-04-06
    listed $89,900 160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (160 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 bath, 1296 sq. ft. home located on 2.5 acres of land. Property features, laminate hardwood, walk in closet, 464 sq. ft. porch/deck and outbuilding.

27. 2020-01-06
    soldstatus $32,584

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $657 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 124.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$657
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $1,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rural Retreat

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #4304

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,372

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Current HPI: 188.0572
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+452.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $180,000 SWVAR
• 2023-10-16 Sold (MLS) $67,000 SWVAR
• 2023-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-19 Contingent — SWVAR
• 2023-08-29 Price Changed $69,900 SWVAR
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2023-08-21 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2023-07-12 Price Changed $79,900 SWVAR
• 2023-06-08 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2023-02-09 Listed — SWVAR
• 2022-04-06 Listed $89,900 SWVAR
• 2020-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,584 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $657 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.