Lot 6 TBD CR 3565

China Spring, TX 76633

$269,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,969 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,632
• Tax + insurance: −$519
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-604/mo
• Annual: $-7,249/yr
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $87,154

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-604 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#411 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.2% in China Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.