Lot 6 TBD CR 3565 · China Spring, TX 76633

$269,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,969 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Built 2026 1.20 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home package available (not currently on property) in sought-after China Spring ISD with FHA financing available at $10,000 down to qualified buyers!! This 1,969 sq ft new home offers a spacious 28x72 layout with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and two separate living areas designed for everyday comfort and flexibility. Full tape and texture throughout provides the finished look and feel of a site-built home. The home can be placed on a prime 1.2-acre lot, giving you room to enjoy outdoor living, add future improvements, or simply spread out and relax. Minor restrictions to maintain property values. Estimated price for complete package with model shown here (home + land) is $269,000, with final pricing subject to home model selections and optional upgrades. Additional lot sizes and home options are available. Pick your new home and lot today!!

Key facts

• 1.2-acre lot
• Spacious layout
• Outdoor living

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• 1.2-ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $269,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,265.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-604 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.2% in China Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#411 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL); China Spring Middle (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 478 students, 34% FRL); China Spring H S (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,823 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,265
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -13.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-88,883
• Equity at exit: $46,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-126,820
• Equity at exit: $26,913

Cash invested: $87,154 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76633

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,632
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,669/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,723

Max offer price $223,854

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-497	+0% $-604	+5% $-712	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-759	-5% $-681	+0% $-604	+5% $-527	+10% $-449
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-525	base $-604	+0.5pp $-685	+1.0pp $-767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,816
• Closing costs: $9,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $269,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    price $269,000 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Home package available (not currently on property) in sought-after China Spring ISD with FHA financing available at $10,000 down to qualified buyers!! This 1,969 sq ft new home offers a spacious 28x72 layout with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and two separate living areas designed for everyday comfort and flexibility. Full tape and texture throughout provides the finished look and feel of a site-built home. The home can be placed on a prime 1.2-acre lot, giving you room to enjoy outdoor living, add future improvements, or simply spread out and relax. Minor restrictions to maintain property values. Estimated price for complete package with model shown here (home + land) is $269,000, with final pricing subject to home model selections and optional upgrades. Additional lot sizes and home options are available. Pick your new home and lot today!!

17. 2026-02-06
    listed $270,000 Active 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Home package available (not currently on property) in sought-after China Spring ISD with FHA financing available at $10,000 down to qualified buyers!! This 1,969 sq ft new home offers a spacious 28x72 layout with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and two separate living areas designed for everyday comfort and flexibility. Full tape and texture throughout provides the finished look and feel of a site-built home. The home can be placed on a prime 1.2-acre lot, giving you room to enjoy outdoor living, add future improvements, or simply spread out and relax. Minor restrictions to maintain property values. Estimated price for complete package with model shown here (home + land) is $269,000, with final pricing subject to home model selections and optional upgrades. Additional lot sizes and home options are available. Pick your new home and lot today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,436
• − Property taxes: −$4,669
• − Insurance: −$1,556
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$9,055
• Taxable loss: −$12,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,114
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — China Spring

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #8486

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,037

Population outlook (Bosque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 16,953 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 16,014 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 15,116 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 13,468 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 11,147 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bosque

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.9pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+61.4 2008: R+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.76%
• Current HPI: 242.4084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $270,000 NTREIS