13 E Pierce Ave

Smallwood, NY 12720

$99,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $501/mo
• Annual: $6,010/yr
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.68%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 2.8% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — The siding is weathered and peeling, indicating significant damage and the need for replacement.
• Major: Roof — The roof shows signs of wear, with some shingles missing or damaged, indicating the need for repair or replacement.
• Major: Foundation — The foundation appears uneven and there are visible cracks and settling, indicating the need for structural repair.